TIME SERIES EVALUATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WHEAT CROP PRODUCTION OF PAKISTAN
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17762/ijma.v7i3.76Abstract
Changing climate has been and will continue to be the primary cause of instability in overall food production. The current study traced out the impact of climate change on one of the major crop of Pakistan i.e. wheat crop by employing vector auto regression (VAR) model. Yearly seasonal data, from 1981 to 2016, available at the Metrological Department of Pakistan and Agriculture Statistics of Pakistan was used. Results confirmed that climate change may influence the wheat crop productions in Pakistan. Simulation scenarios for year 2030 and results from impulse response function and variance decomposition confirmed that mean temperature escalations and increase in rainfall beyond optimal levels will negatively affect wheat crop production. However, the mean minimum temperature has produced positive effects on wheat crop production. In this regard suitable adaptations and mitigation techniques i.e. climatic resistant varieties, water conservation techniques, sowing time adjustments and better knowledge sharing of the climatic risks will certainly help to avoid the disastrous effects.